Bearish USDA report

first_imgShare Facebook Twitter Google + LinkedIn Pinterest Bearish.That one word wraps up today’s numbers for corn, soybeans, and wheat. Not only were the yield estimates for both corn and soybeans higher than July, they are much higher. The trade had expected production, yield, and ending stocks to be declining for corn and soybeans. They did not. USDA estimated the corn yield at 168.8 bushels per acre, up 2 bushels from July. The trade had expected ending stocks to drop about 175 million bushels. Instead, they rose 113 million bushels to 1.713 billion bushels. Corn production was estimated to be 13.686 billion bushels, up from last month’s 13.530 billion bushels. Soybean production was pegged at 3.916 billion bushels, compared to last months 3.885 billion bushels, and up 31 million bushels. The trade has been talking for weeks about soybean ending stocks moving lower. They came in at 470 million bushels, up from last months 425 million bushels. Traders had expected ending stocks to drop to 301 million bushels.Prior to the USDA report at noon corn and wheat were up 5 cents with soybeans down 7 cents. Shortly after the report corn was down 21 cents, soybeans down 53 cents, and wheat down 14 cents.Ahead of today’s supply and demand report the market has seen lots of price volatility. Monday brought double digit gains across the board for grains on supply concerns. Tuesday most of those gains were erased with demand concerns, largely for US corn and soybeans exports.  Todays USDA report will be the first surveyed report as reporters comb thousands of fields across the country in efforts to best determine corn and soybean yields. For corn they will be looking at stalk counts. Numerous  reports since planting took place comment that producers were pushing the envelope pretty hard in orders to get seed counts per acre moving higher. Later in September USDA will be looking at ear weights as part of the surveys they conduct. With soybeans the reporters are looking at pod counts.This year has been an especially difficult year to get an accurate number of acres for corn and soybeans with all of the flooding problems that took place. It was not just a large area for one state that rains played a role. Instead, it was many areas in many states. Missouri in particular was hardest hit with soybean plantings held up for weeks. Going back to late June there were nearly five million acres yet to be planted to soybeans. Again most of that was in Missouri. Yet indications suggest it will be just Indiana where soybean acres will again be surveyed. Shortly after the June 30 acres and stocks report many had thought that the soybean acres would be surveyed in three states, Missouri, Illinois, and Indiana.  Closer to home in Ohio, northwest Ohio had many counties where rains played a role in corn and soybean acres not getting planted. It is no wonder that some have said we may not see a really good acres number until the final report for 2015 production comes out in January 2016.Prior to the report many had thought that the numbers would be bullish for soybeans and neutral for corn. Traders were looking for U.S. corn production to be 13.327 billion bushels, down 200 million bushels from the July report. In addition, they estimated the U.S. corn yield to be 164.5 bushels per acres, down from 166.8 bushels in July. Traders had estimate soybean production  would decline with at lower yield of 44.7 bushels per acres compared to the July estimate of 46 bushels per acre.The take home from today, the report was bearish without a doubt. Traders and producers were expecting lower yields and lower ending stocks. That did not happen and the markets will close lower today. It may not be immediately seen but there is one more take home for the day, another short phrase to remember. Uncertainty and price volatility. With so many not seeing the high yields that USDA published, many will now be saying, “Show me, show me the yields are there.”It is going to be a most interesting  time for the grain markets in the next two months.last_img